Blizzard announced today that Annual subscribers to World of Warcraft will get a copy of Diablo III absolutely free.  I was stunned until I sat back and took a look at it and realized it has the potential to be a brilliant marketing move by a company known for wringing every last ounce of change from their customer's pockets.

First off, World of Warcraft is about subscribers.  $14.95 per month for North American subscribers and 10+ million players(2 - 3 in North America) adds up to a shit ton of cash and a revenue stream that needs protecting.  So what's Blizzard to do about it when faced with declining subscriptions?

This is their answer and it is very likely one of the best timed announcements in gaming, ever.  World of Warcraft subscriptions have three enemies.

  1. World of Warcraft is an old game.  Players get bored playing the same game all the time.  We're constantly bombarded with the next shiny game so World of Warcraft fights its own age to retain subscribers.
  2. Star Wars: The Old Republic drops on December 20th.
  3. Diablo III drops sometime next year.

Number 1 feeds into number 2 in that many players have dropped to a monthly subscription or game card level awaiting Star Wars.  Thousands of raiding guilds across WoW servers will dismantle on or after December 20th as players try out SWToR.  Given the recent subscription number drops and the fact that getting a lapsed subscription to reup is an order of magnitude more difficult to do than retaining them all along, Blizzard needs to do something about SWToR or lose another 1 - 3 million subscribers to Star Wars.

Diablo III stands to canabalize WoW subscriptions even more so than SWToR.  The bottom line is that up until recently, many WoW players were on a monthly subscription waiting to try out SWToR and Diablo III to see if it would break their WoW habit.  Now, it doesn't have to.  Blizzards bet here is that you were going to buy Diablo III anyway, you were going to take time off of WoW to play Diablo III and you were likely going to at least check out SWToR.  That adds up to 4 months of time and 4 billing cycles for you to drop your subscription and never return to WoW.  Scary if you're Blizzard and you've already been seeing subscriptions decline.

The answer, get you to pay for a year's subscription now and give you Diablo III as the carrot for doing so.  Then you're free to do as you please until this time next year.  Play Diablo III and check out SWToR all you want.  They're betting you'll be back and that you'll be on a monthly cautious subscription to SWToR.  At that point, after you're done being distracted by these other games, you'll face a decision, continue paying two subs(psychologically) and play SWToR or let SWToR lapse, come back to the sub you've already paid for and reup at least monthly when the subscription comes due.  They've removed one of the largest barriers to your returning after Diablo III and SWToR, the subscription by capitalizing on the hype and demand for Diablo III.

WoW players win and Blizzard wins at the same time.  Blizzard gets up front money, an huge pile of goodwill with gamers and an easier path for you to transition back into the game after you're through with whatever you play this holiday.  You get Diablo III essentially free.  SWToR loses here and I can't see how Bioware counters this gaming bargain from Blizzard.  Today's announcement is a serious blow to SWToR that we won't see play out fully until 18 months from now when all of these Blizzard Annual subscriptions bought today come due.  Brilliant move Blizzard and thanks for my free copy of Diablo III.  Can I haz it now?